March Boarding: Delayed, Cue “The Odds”

On hold...

The 1st of the month in 2010 usually means issuing our monthly World Cup boarding passes.

March Boarding Passes: DELAYED!

However, one problem…the USMNT is currently embarked on a friendly trip to Amsterdam to discover how close or how far they are off world class pace. TSG will also get a little more insight on who’s making that plane as well.

So we’ll delay our boarding passes series and use  March 1st to kick-off a new column here at TSG that we’ll simply call, “The Odds.”

It will go like this, whether within the column or in the comments, odds will be laid down on an event, for example, “A Benny Feilhaber goal against England on June 12th.”

I say “1,000 to 1.” By the feedback we get in the comments, we’ll move the “line” on the event up or down and then publish all the prognostications, likely up top in the navigation bar.

Remember, we need you’re feedback to move the line.

I’ll take a shot at kicking us off in a mini-version here, please contribute yours in the comments:

2 to 1: Landon Donovan gets two or more goals at World Cup 2010.

5 to 1: Steve Cherundolo gets in a game at World Cup 2010 before Jonathan Bornstein.

Even money: US gets beyond the Group Stage at World Cup 2010.

• 10 to 1: Jermaine Jones makes an appearance for Bob Bradley’s squad before June.

10 to 1: Alejandro Bedoya makes the World Cup roster

• 2 to 1: Ricardo Clark starts June 12th

I’ll stop here for now and will blow this concept out, if you like it, in the next column.

Community-contributed:

5 to 1: Michael Bradley scores in the group stage (B-Mac)

3 to 1: Charlie Davies makes the WC 2010 roster (Evan)


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31 responses to this post.

  1. 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 to 1: John Terry regains his dignity

    Reply

  2. Posted by matthewsf on 2010/02/28 at 11:38 PM

    I’ll take that bet…I think the odds are greater.

    Reply

  3. Posted by B-Mac on 2010/02/28 at 11:39 PM

    Commenting on your odds first: I would love to throw down a dollar on Benny scoring versus England. A likely late game attacking sub, I’d lower his odds down to something more like 100:1. Quicker evaluations on the others:
    Donovan- I’d perhaps raise it slightly to something like 4:1
    Cherundolo- Seems fair right now, but depending on health going into the health cup could fluctuate majorly
    USA- Too high, I remember when the groups came out seeing the USA -150 to advance, so something around 3:2 odds seems fair
    Jones- Sadly, odds are too low, just zero encouraging news coming from him pushes the odds up to 20:1
    Bedoya- I like that line, but perhaps a bit too low
    Clark- Fair, but put me down for betting on Mo Edu instead

    My briefly thought out odds:
    15:1- Frank Simek makes the World Cup roster
    4:1- Oguchi Onyewu does not start against England
    5:1- Michael Bradley scores in the group stage
    Over/Under points USA gets out of group stage: 4.5

    Reply

    • Posted by matthewsf on 2010/02/28 at 11:41 PM

      Awesome …. I’ll take your Bradley odds. He’s going to get one of those…actually…

      5 to 1 that Michael Bradley scores in the box against Algeria or Slovenia on set piece that ricochets to him.

      I’m loving this new column already….thanks B-Mac….

      Reply

      • Posted by B-Mac on 2010/03/01 at 12:06 AM

        Haha thanks for the kind words Matt, I’ll throw out a couple more while I’m at it:

        O/U goals allowed in the Group Stage: 5
        Odds DMB makes the squad- 9:2
        Odds Eddie Johnson makes the squad 6:1 (p.s. I’m betting on it)
        Odds the Big Aloha starts 2 games in the group stage- 5:1
        Odds Coach Sweatpants is not the Head Coach in September 2010: 5:2
        Odds that Jonathan Spector plays the most minutes of all the defensive players- 3:1

        Reply

  4. Btw, how can you put this column up and not have odds for Charlie Davies making the roster? I have to go with 3 to 1 (I don’t want to get my hopes up too high)

    Reply

  5. Posted by matthewsf on 2010/03/01 at 12:11 AM

    This TSG feature is going to be great….

    Reply

  6. Odds of a US player getting a red card? I was thinking possibly Even.
    but 3 to 1 odds on Ricardo Clark or Michael Bradley getting sent off

    Reply

  7. Posted by Swa on 2010/03/01 at 12:14 AM

    Charlie makes the roster: 5-2
    Jermaine Jones: 3,719-1 (more likely than successfully navigating an asteroid field, but it’s not happening)
    Jozy draws a penalty by Terry and Lando coolly converts: Pick ‘em
    O/U on US bookings in Group Stage: 8.5
    O/U on US goals in Group Stage: 4.5

    Reply

  8. Also the odds for Feilhaber’s getting a goal vs England shouldn’t be 1000-1. They should be 60-1. Allow me to explain my formula. Start with even odds. Then factor in Benny’s international strike rate of 2 goals in 30 games, but instead of multiplying the odds by 15 I am only going to count the friendly goal against China as .5 due to lack of a quality opponent. So 1.5 in 30 = 20. So you multiply to get 20-1, then you figure he will get at 30 minutes of playing time in the match at most, making it 3 times harder for him to score, multiply 20-1 by 3 and you get 60-1.

    Reply

    • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2010/03/01 at 9:10 AM

      I thought statistically, most goals were scored / conceded in the last 20 minutes? Shouldn’t they get factored in / weighted, rather than treating every minute as a constant?!?

      Reply

      • Probably but that was also somewhat of a joke. Idk Benny isn’t scoring against England. He scores fewer goals then Deco

        Reply

  9. Posted by Paul on 2010/03/01 at 8:23 AM

    Odds that we see Bornstein do something like this (from the Slovakia friendly; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FV1L5yEf2I&feature=related) against the Dutch: 4:1

    3:1: What should be the odds, in an ideal world, that Steve Cherundolo gets in a game at World Cup 2010 before Jonathan Bornstein. As long as Steve can get heal up, I wouldn’t start Bornstein; Boca and Spector should start before Bornstein. He just hasn’t looked good against superior competition, yet everyone has inked him in for a ticket to South Africa.

    3:1 The odds of US fans ruing the fact that Bob did not examine our other defensive talent (i.e. Castillo, Orozco, Gonzalez, ect.) for the World Cup.

    Reply

  10. Posted by Matt B on 2010/03/01 at 8:53 AM

    For now I’ll just comment on your odds
    Landon 2 to 1 sounds about right, considering he takes all penalties and free kicks
    Cherundolo at 5 to 1 I think may be a bit high. I want Dolo on the right and Spector on the left against England.
    I would increase the odds on Jermaine Jones and Bedoya. Unless I’m mistaken, the only friendlies after Wednesday are after the 30 man roster has already been released, so I just don’t see when Jones could be called in. I would set those odds at something like 50 to 1. Bedoya I would just raise a bit, to say 15 to 1.
    The others I like.

    Reply

  11. Posted by GeorgeCross on 2010/03/01 at 9:14 AM

    What are the odds that Tim Howard makes a mistake that directly leads to a goal?

    What are the odds that Landon Donovan does another “Ronny Rosenthal”?

    Reply

    • Posted by matthewsf on 2010/03/01 at 9:15 AM

      George, you used to be such a positive guy……

      Reply

      • Seems like George is getting a bit nervous about June 12!

        Reply

        • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2010/03/01 at 9:45 AM

          Not really anything to do with 12th June specifically Tuesday, but the circus going on now is not good. I still think that we have enough to beat the USA.

          I genuinely thought that England had a very good chance to get past the QFs. But the wheels are coming off (and I’m not talking about the theiving Scousers!).

          My point about Donovan is that he took an (unchallenged) air shot in the 6 yard box against Utd, and missed a sitter against Spurs. And to be fair to me, when everybody was saying “I told you so” after Donovan’s good performances at the beginning of his loan, I said that too many conclusions (positive or negative) can NOT be drawn from a 10 week stint. Everton beat United so too much wasn’t said, but the Spurs sitter has been highlighted more because Everton lost. After the initial hysteria and inflation, I feel that things are settling down to the normal level – he’s a very good player, but World Class he is not.

          Also Matt, I didn’t see the odds for Bradley getting his tactics or substitutions wrong, and there being a TSG post written up within hours with 50+ comments!!

          Reply

        • The circus seems to happen to England with every major tournament. With everyone’s attention on the side, the rags see a chance to increase circulation and the wags do their best to create the stories. I’m worried for you. I do wish Chelsea had seen the back of Terry over the summer because his current form will lose us the title race.

          Bradley getting his tactics wrong? I reckon the odds of that at 1:1000…

          Agreed on Donovan… I wrote something a while back on the midseason transfer syndrome: new player comes in the january window, has a handful of decent performances to universal acclaim, raises expectations but then a few indifferent displays turn the terraces against said player.

          A truly instinctive goalscorer might’ve netted the tough chance against MU. Can’t comment on the miss vs. Tottenham since I didn’t see it but it sounds pretty bad.

          Reply

        • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2010/03/01 at 10:10 AM

          Tuesday:

          1000 to 1 or 1 to 1000???

          Reply

        • 1:1000 – a $10 bet would pay out $0.01

          Reply

  12. Odds US will be eliminated in the knock-out rounds by a traditional powerhouse that benefits from poor refereeing decisions – 2:1

    The John O’Brien clip led me to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLtT0imwdCQ

    Seriously, a hand has no business stopping the ball from crossing the goal-line, regardless of whether intentional or not. In other areas of the field you can see a clearer case for discretion but on the goal line, if the arm is away from the body, it is a handball in my book. Besides, the ball also looks to be over the line anyways. That said, Donovan should’ve had 2 before halftime.

    Reply

  13. Posted by RSF on 2010/03/01 at 10:33 AM

    Over Under for Bridge references….. 7.5 ……I’ll take the over

    3:2 Odds Jozy scores and makes a reference to Haiti in the celebration

    Reply

  14. Posted by Tom on 2010/03/01 at 11:42 AM

    Re: Jones, I have to think the odds of him being called up are as good as those of David Regis, viz. zero.

    Reply

  15. Posted by Max G on 2010/03/01 at 4:02 PM

    Take that Davies bet while you still can.

    3-1 means nothing to CD9

    Reply

  16. [...] dropped a mini-version of our new series, “The Odds” on March 1st. We’re back with some feedback, restucturing, and “a deeper [...]

    Reply

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