Euro 2012, Quarterfinal Preview: Greece vs. Germany: The Bailout Bowl

Bailout!

Zack Goldman has your afternoon and lunchtime Cliff Notes right here.

Out of all of the old rivalries and politically-charged matchups that the European Championships have thrown up in recent years, this is one of the most compelling.  Let’s sink our teeth into the second quarterfinal, Greece against their sugardaddies… this is… The Bailout Bowl.

What we learned from the group stage.

Germany

Not as greasy as Ronaldo, but just as effective….

Essentially, we learned in the group stage that while Germany is not unassailable, they will be an extremely difficult out in this tournament.  At the risk of sounding reductive, they are an incredibly talented side that moves the ball well, defends competently, and works tirelessly as a team for 90 minutes (my Group B preview found here describes their playing style in greater detail).

Sami, unheralded….

The midfield spine of Sami Khedira, Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Mesut Özil has been every bit as good as advertised and absolutely central to the success of Die Mannschaft so far.  The trio is versatile and look as though they play the game with a single brain—always on the same page and moving off the ball in support.  They embody what is great about Joachim Löw’s team: they defend together, they attack together, and they run their socks off.  Look no further than their collective performance against Holland to see the difference they can make together.

At the defensive end of things, Mats Hummels has answered any questions about his readiness for a starting role with three dominant performances at center-back.  Superb anticipation, commitment to ball-winning, and a commanding presence in the air have made German fans forget all about that pre-tournament five-goal fiasco in Basel.  What’s more, Hummels has embodied the free-flowing spirit of the side with his willingness to become a meaningful part of the attack.  Whether it’s something like his stellar run against Holland—which parted the Dutch like the Orange Sea—or just lending support to the midfield by being available to bounce passes off in the center of the park, Hummels has done his part on both sides of the ball through three games and looks much more comfortable straying from the backline in possession than he once did.

Up top, Löw was rewarded for his willingness to stick with Mario Gomez, who bagged three goals before the final whistle blew against the Netherlands.  If for any reason they should need an attacking punch beyond Gomez, they’ve got plenty of it on the bench, including some guy named Miroslav Klose waiting in reserve.

Greece

Holebas: “Wait, please, PLEASE come back here….was it something I said?!”

The Greeks squeaked through to the knockout stage after a series of gritty, battling performances in Group A (otherwise known as the Group of Life or the Group of Can We Have Our Money Back?).  They kicked off the tournament with an end-to-end, pulsating 1-1 draw with the Poles that you had to see to believe—a complete tale of two halves.  From here, they narrowly lost to the Czechs, 2-1, and seemed dead in the water before securing a place in the knockout stage with an improbable, but well-earned victory over Russia.

This marked a measure of revenge, perhaps, for the final Group A match in Euro 2004 in which the Russians nearly knocked the Greeks out of the tournament with a 2-1 victory.  And none of us even want to think of a world where that team doesn’t win the Euros and we all have one less banal thing to say about what ‘typical’ Greek soccer looks like.  In any event, Greece’s gritty win over Russia this time around sent them through to this matchup versus Germany against all odds and kickstarted a very historic 24-hour period for the nation in which they apparently had some election that was probably of very little consequence (eat it, SYRIZA).

So, what do we know about them from these first three matches?  Well, the comparisons to 2004, as tired as they may sound, are actually well-founded for the most part.

The Greeks still play in many ways like they did in 2004—soaking up pressure and being remarkably economical in the final third and finishing their chance (occasionally chances).  But, we can also say that they are a much different side under the stewardship of Fernando Santos than they were under Otto Rehhagel, both personnel- and style-wise.  For starters, they are much worse defensively than anyone is willing to say (primarily because after they advanced to the knockout stage, it became very tempting to conflate this side’s  grittiness with 2004’s legitimate defensive prowess—when they are, in fact, two different things).   The shape of Greece’s backline has been dire at times, as seen in the first half against Poland and for much of the game against the Czech Republic.

Poor José Holebas, the Greek left back, has been absolutely picked apart in this tournament by everyone from Jakub Blaszczykowski to Theodor Gebre-Selassie.  He was a substitute in the second half against Russia and (thankfully) picked up his second yellow of the tournament, thus leaving him suspended for this Germany match (my hands get clammy thinking of the awful things Thomas Müller would have done to him).  The defense against Russia was better than in the first two games, but Dick Advocaat’s men still had tons of chances—and, let’s face it, they’re no Germany.  One would expect the backline to have to be much more organized—and receive far more support from the midfield—in order to have any shot at remaining airtight against the Germans.

In compensating for any defensive frailties, however, this Greek team actually goes forward in a much more dynamic way than the 2004 squad.  The chances this team was able to create in the first three matches have proven that they are both formidable on the break and capable of fairly decent combination play when they can get numbers into the attacking third.  While Otto’s corps eight years ago did this brilliantly at times (I’m thinking in particular of the opening match against Portugal that they won 2-1), they were, for the most part, reduced to rigid bunker defending and making the most of dead ball situations.  Yes, they poured forward on the counter, but much of their time in possession was spent resting on the ball, rather than streaming up the pitch.

Their game was to industriously and calculatedly advance into dangerous positions more than it was to simply break.  This team seems different in that regard.  The difference may be subtle, but one wonders if they can surprise Germany with having a little more mettle and adventurousness going forward than anticipated.  The enterprising trio of Dimitris Salpingidis, Theofanis Gekas, and Georgios Samaras (yes, I just described Samaras as enterprising) gives them an attacking oomph that cannot be ignored.

Samaras…..enterprising?

While Samaras does not give the Greeks much in the way of tracking back, playing him and Salpingidis on the wings does enable Santos to drop them deeper into the midfield when not in possession.  They are more defensively postured than the average winger and given Greece’s reputation to play almost everybody behind the ball, it seems reasonable that Santos will have them immediately drop when not in possession.  He can then use them to plug passing lanes and apply pressure in the center of the park, as well as to track advancing outside backs.

None of this should complicate the notion that Greece will look to play defensive, reactive football against the Germans.  One might expect them to start with this 4-3-2-1 in name, but I think Santos will compress his team’s shape to the point that we see something significantly more defensive (the famous Greek 6-1-2-1 perhaps!).  Quite honestly, I think Greece, in many ways, have been at their best in this tournament when forced down a man.  After drawing a red card in the opening match, Santos reverted to essentially two banks of four behind a lone striker.  If I’m the gaffer, I compress my team’s shape with a 4-4-1-1 against Germany in this same way.  The plan should be to congest the center of the field and play Salpingidis in the hole behind Gekas—but, alas, I’m not Fernando Santos and I fear we will see a more defensive-minded version of a 4-3-2-1.

Do they have one more in them for their fans?…

Two main things to focus on: the Greeks started very, very slowly in their first two matches.  Needless to say, if this happens against the Germans, Greece’s hopes of progression will be put to bed faster than me after a glass of ouzo.  Secondly, ‘Captain Hellas’ Giorgos Karagounis is suspended.  Already an absolute legend for his performances in Euro 2004, Karagounis was a revelation for this squad in their final group match.  Making amends for his penalty miss in the opening match against Poland, Karagounis sent the Greeks through to the next round with a goal against the Russians on the stroke of halftime.  He then proceeded to draw what many felt should have been a penalty—and then, in disbelief, carried out one of the most splendid freakouts anyone has ever seen.  Losing him is a massive blow, but will perhaps force Santos’s hand in introducing a more defensive-minded player to partner Kostas Katsouranis as a second deep-lying midfielder.  It’s hard to spin Karagounis’s absence into any kind of a positive, but tactically it may take some of the pressure off Katsouranis defensively.

What can we expect?

First off, expect Germany to line up unchanged.  The only decision to make is whether to go with Lars Bender at right back after his goalscoring performance against Denmark.  I’d imagine we’ll see Jerome Boateng reclaim his spot, though, after serving his one-match ban.  Greece are missing the talismanic Karagounis, as well as world-class Holebas.

I expect Germany to boss possession and to defend high, keeping the ball in Greek territory for most of the game.  The absence of Karagounis could not come at a worse time against the deadly midfield trio of Germany.  The darting runs and dangerous through-balls that Löw’s men have deftly displayed throughout the group stage should still yield plenty of chances in front of goal, despite Greece’s defensive focus.

Expect Greece to get a chance or two—and they will have to stick those away and defend well if they have any hope of escaping this test.

Prediction.

Nothing is usually easy against Greece, but given the gulf in quality between the sides, I feel Germany will win this one with relative ease.  Let’s say 2-0.  Angela Merkel rejoices.

About these ads

36 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by matthewsf on 2012/06/22 at 5:02 AM

    Varios news outlets “reporting” that Gomez and Muller start this one on the bench. We shall see.

    Reply

    • Posted by matthewsf on 2012/06/22 at 5:03 AM

      And Podolski….probably rumors?

      Reply

    • Posted by Jared on 2012/06/22 at 7:34 AM

      Podolski and Muller on the bench make sense. There are quite a few players on the bench that can slide in there that will provide more (Gotze, Reus, Schurrle). If Gomez sits then I wonder if Low is looking past the Greeks by resting players which can be very dangerous if any of this turns out to be true.

      Reply

  2. […] more on Georgios Samaras and the Greek team at Euro 2012, click […]

    Reply

  3. Posted by Henning on 2012/06/22 at 6:35 AM

    Wow. Kicker confirms it’s Klose, Reus and Schürrle to play!

    I was just going to write how I would prefer Reus in there somewhere, for with Greece probably lining up around the area like a handball team again, what Germany need is somebody who is comfortably seeking the one-on-one situations and who is even doing well in one-on-twos. As much as I love Muellers unpredictability, his style this is not. Good on Löw, give the Greeks something to think.

    Btw don’t be too hard on poor Holebas – he’ not a natural leftback and he has been hopelessly abandoned by Samaras who has never been of ANY help in defense. I have a lot of time for Holebas, but then I support 1860 (where he became a professional) so I’m hopelessly biased.

    Reply

    • Posted by Jared on 2012/06/22 at 8:03 AM

      Those moves will either make Low a genius or an idiot who gets fired immediately after the game. It takes very large brass ones to make changes to a team entering the knockout stages that most believe is the favorite to win the tournament.

      Reply

      • Posted by dth on 2012/06/22 at 8:41 AM

        Yes, but it’s explicable in that Loew has always loved Klose.

        I’m surprised by his dropping Podolski, who’s been a Loew favorite for ages. Very interested to see how this works out. Personally, I think Goetze’s dribbling and vision would be very helpful in unlocking a defense.

        Reply

        • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2012/06/22 at 11:54 AM

          How do they compare in providing width? Are they better or worse? Surely Mr. Löw expects a really deep and narrow /compact Greek defensive unit and he’s trying to stretch? Or if Greece to concede the wide areas, he sees Klose as a better option to get on the end of the crosses?

          Reply

    • Posted by JW on 2012/06/22 at 10:30 AM

      Agreed. Mueller brings more to the counter than he does to this kind of attacking. Klose has an All-Star noggin and first-touch goal scoring capability – I don’t think a forward is going to get more than a touch in the Greek box today, and that’s probably the reasoning. Mobility won’t be as important since everything is packed in, and there are two players quick on the break up front with him should one happen. Klose can’t create space for himself, but he does move around the CBs whereas I think Gomez is more likely to beat his man and score after receiving the ball.

      Reply

      • Posted by matthewsf on 2012/06/22 at 10:36 AM

        Frankly I don’t understand that subs. Why do you let the other team dictate to your team which has so far played extremely well. Don’t understand the Gomez sub one bit. Always play the hot striker.

        That said, I’m not the coach and maybe this will work.

        Reply

        • Posted by Zack on 2012/06/22 at 11:09 AM

          Couldn’t agree more about playing the hot striker almost as a rule in a tournament setting. Especially one as short as this.

          I like the idea of starting Reus and Schürrle in theory — they certainly give you something very different going forward that may be capable of unlocking the bunkered defense. A lot of the media in Germany have been focusing on Löw not giving enough time to the likes of Götze, Reus, Schürrle, and Kroos… but I figured that was mostly just the German media having nearly nothing negative to focus on after a perfect record in the Group of Death. It does feel quite strange… I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team perform like this and then have three major changes to the lineup before a knockout stage match they’re expected to walk.

          It’s a bold move, that’s for sure (that’s why they pay you the big bucks and let you eat your boogers on the sidelines, Joachim) — and it may pay off. But, going forward, there’s no doubt that he’s sacrificing team chemistry right now, which is everything (for everybody, but especially) for the Germans. They seemed very settled and I don’t know why you risk disrupting that. Especially up top.

          Reply

  4. Posted by matthewsf on 2012/06/22 at 9:07 AM

    Great job on this preview Zack. I honestly did not know enough Greece beyond their style of play — good mix of history in there. Thanks.

    Reply

    • Posted by Zack on 2012/06/22 at 10:53 AM

      Cheers! Euro 2004 still seems so fresh in my mind… wonderful to think back on how trying to watch this thing 8 years ago, it was the furthest thing from easy.

      We’ve got every game on ESPN now with pre- and post-game shows… but then? Pay-per-view. I’m lucky enough to have a father that got every bit as obsessed with the tournament as I did, and we ended up buying the whole package. But, have we ever come a long way…

      Reply

  5. Posted by Hellass! on 2012/06/22 at 10:21 AM

    HELLAS!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

  6. Posted by matthewsf on 2012/06/22 at 10:43 AM

    On German subs (not U-boats) as well, if you remove 3 stars, that means you’re out of moves if you want to get those three in the match.

    Say it goes to penalties, but Low has already made a defensive sub. That means either Muller, Podolski or Gomez won’t be in a PK rotation.

    Anyone? Bueller?

    Reply

  7. Another solid preview. Keep up the good work, Zack. You have a great understanding of the game.

    Reply

  8. Posted by KickinNames.. on 2012/06/22 at 12:30 PM

    Lahm seems to have big goals when they need them. Ja Ja!
    Hopefully this draws Greece into a game.
    BTW- I think Low changes have all produced results and chances. Reus, Klose and Schirrle have all been solid in movement and attacking
    Schweinie looks like he’s having one of those poor matches that he tosses out every now and then.

    Reply

  9. Posted by KickinNames.. on 2012/06/22 at 1:05 PM

    Samarans….football Jesus….
    Germans look like they are TRYING to play spanish football a bit too much. Way too much tiki taka top of box for a squad with all that firepower up top.Time for Gomez for Klose.

    Reply

  10. Posted by KickinNames.. on 2012/06/22 at 1:08 PM

    Khedira…wow….no tiki taka just blast it by him. First decent ball from Boateng all game. He’s been strangely off all game out wide.

    Reply

  11. Posted by KickinNames.. on 2012/06/22 at 1:29 PM

    Boy that Joegie Low is a real gambler, huh? Start to see why Klinsi “became available”. Of course having an almost endless supply of world class players coming together, and more coming up!, makes the job a bit easier…

    Reply

    • Posted by dth on 2012/06/22 at 2:21 PM

      Klinsi became available because he didn’t want to coach the Germans after 2006.

      But, yeah, Low’s a very good coach and in the perfect situation for him. Not sure how he’d do on a team with more jerks on it; everyone on the German team seems fairly well-balanced, except for Gomez, who’s prone to crises of confidence.

      Reply

    • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2012/06/22 at 4:28 PM

      Now now. Endless supply of “potential” world class talent”… They haven’t produced on the international stage yet!!

      Reply

      • Posted by Jared on 2012/06/22 at 4:54 PM

        Really? 3rd place in 2006, finalists in 2008, 3rd place in 2010. I’d say that’s producing on the international stage. Any country outside of Brazil would kill for that record in tournaments.

        Reply

        • Posted by GeorgeCross on 2012/06/22 at 6:35 PM

          Calm down. I am talking about calling this current crop of young talent, on the cusp, “world class” rather than Germany’s tournament record. Besides, my tongue was firmly in my cheek. You need to recognise humour (and envy).

          Reply

        • The expectation for the German team is that they reach the final in every tournament they enter and ,preferably win it.

          Third place is a disappointment to them. Klinsmann’s finish was viewed in some quarters as particulalry egregious since they had home field.

          Reply

          • Posted by dth on 2012/06/23 at 6:42 AM

            Germany was concerned before the tournament that they’d be terrible–team too young, etc. Klinsmann was considered pretty freaking awesome by the end of the tournament. That’s why everyone in the U.S. was so excited about the potential hire in 2006 and that’s why he was able to get the Bayern Munich job. Those “quarters” you speak of were awfully small or have come to that opinion in retrospect.

            Reply

            • I thought JK did I fine job but the “quarters” sentiment I refer to comes from an interview a few years ago I once read where he mentioned it.

  12. Posted by KickinNames.. on 2012/06/22 at 1:35 PM

    Boateng might be looking at the bench after this one. He was a liability out there today.

    Reply

    • Posted by Henning on 2012/06/22 at 2:27 PM

      I half-agree. Against Italy’s 3-5-2 I’d play Bender, because here width and particularly attacking fullbacks will be a necessity, and Boateng is just not a quick enough thinker when it comes to attacking play.
      He did get the cross in for the 2-1 though, I’ll give him that.
      If England will progress to the semis I’d keep the conservative lineup including Boateng, for his defensive prowess (even though he let himself down with the 1-1 tonight. Can’t fault him for the penalty, I think. He turned away and got hit.)

      Reply

  13. Posted by twewlife on 2012/06/22 at 3:42 PM

    So anyone think Muller lost his starting job Reus?

    Also, still not sure why you pull Gomez from the starting lineup…

    Reply

    • Posted by dth on 2012/06/22 at 6:42 PM

      Klose moves much better, more actively, and more generously than Gomez. Neither are really great options, but it demonstrates that forwards are a bit overrated.

      Reply

  14. […] Essentially, we learned in the group stage that while Germany is not unassailable, they will be an extremely difficult out in this tournament.  At the risk of sounding reductive, they are an incredibly talented side that moves the ball well, defends competently, and works tirelessly as a team for 90 minutes (my Group B preview found here describes their playing style in greater detail)….More at Euro 2012, Quarterfinal Preview: Greece vs. Germany: The Bailout … […]

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 253 other followers

%d bloggers like this: