Archive for November, 2013

The Lalas Proclamation: Is MLS The Most Competitive League In the World?

On August 25th, basement-tenant-on-rent-control Chivas USA whupped up on the New York Red Bulls, 2-0. That would be the 2013 MLS Supporter Shield victorious Red Bulls.

On August 25th, basement-tenant-on-rent-control Chivas USA whupped up on the New York Red Bulls, 2-0. That would be the 2013 MLS Supporter Shield-winning Red Bulls.

Alex Olshansky does Alexi Lalas a solid…and contributes the column below….

Parity is a popular topic of conversation in MLS.

Because of league salary and roster rules, it has traditionally been very difficult for any team to consistently stay at the top. Similarly, unless you are Toronto FC, it is not unusual for teams to go from the bottom of the table one year to the top the next. Alexi Lalas famously (infamously? serendipitously? kidding..) proclaimed the league to be “the most competitive league in the world.”

Is he right? Is Lalas’s assertion on point?

To investigate, a representative group of 14 other leagues from around the world were tested on three key metrics that–it says here–are believed to be the best measures of league parity (or competitiveness… let’s consider them interchangeable).

Intra-Table Parity

To measure this, we looked at the standard deviation of points per game (PPG) for each league. In effect, this measures the variance in results across the league. A lower number means teams are more closely grouped towards the average, a higher number means more teams are further from the average (both good and bad).

Very interesting professor....

Very interesting professor….

Year Over Year Parity

This table is the average change in year over year points per game.

This measures how much results vary from year to year. The EPL obviously has a very low number in this metric as generally the top 5 teams have been the same for the past handful of years (as have the mid-table teams).

*It should be noted that this is only from one year’s worth of data, and likely would be different if looked at over multiple years.

Ah-ha...yep...right...right...

Ah-ha…yep…right…right…

The Haves (10%) vs. The Have Nots (90%)

Quite simply, this measures how much goal differential the top 10% of clubs in each league are responsible for–let’s call this The La Liga Conundrum.

A competitive league should not have the top couple teams hording all the results.

For example, look at the difference between who is responsible for the majority of the goal differential in the Bundesliga (Bayern/Dortmund) and MLS (Chivas USA/DC United).

Ze Germans are weak!

The Bundesliga is like MLS’s evil doppelganger dude!

—-

Overall

The three factors above were weighted equally and assigned a standard deviation (either + or -) for each league and each metric.

Add them up and MLS is indeed the most competitive league in this 15 league sample. Interestingly, Brazil was not far behind. Of course, there are multiple ways one can measure parity and competitiveness, and this is just one of many approaches.

But for today Alexi Lalas …. you are correct, sir.

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