Stu Holden! Klinsmann’s Roster For Belgium & Germany

Holden ... no more looking at the past!

Holden … no more looking at the past!

And there it is. Jurgen Klinsmann going wide and expansive with his camp roster next week. The roster dominated by the return of golden boy Stu Holden and no place for Steve Cherundolo (or Carlos Bocanegra).

GOALKEEPERS (6) : Brad Guzan (Aston Villa), Tally Hall (Houston Dynamo), Bill Hamid (D.C. United), Tim Howard (Everton), Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)

DEFENDERS (8) : DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla), Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City), Geoff Cameron (Stoke City), Edgar Castillo (Club Tijuana), Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy), Clarence Goodson (Brondby), Fabian Johnson (Hoffenheim), Michael Parkhurst (Augsburg)

MIDFIELDERS (10) : Michael Bradley (Roma), Joe Corona (Club Tijuana), Brad Davis (Houston Dynamo), Maurice Edu (Bursaspor), Stuart Holden (Bolton), Jermaine Jones (Schalke), Sacha Kljestan (Anderlecht), Brek Shea (Stoke City), Danny Williams (Hoffenheim), Graham Zusi (Sporting Kansas City)

FORWARDS (5) : Jozy Altidore (AZ Alkmaar), Terrence Boyd (Rapid Vienna), Clint Dempsey (Tottenham Hotspur), Herculez Gomez (Santos), Eddie Johnson (Seattle Sounders FC)

Still in recovery according the USSF release.

Still in recovery according the USSF release.

The skinny:

» Perplexing selections based solely on fitness. Cherundolo, no; but he’s been playing since April. Matt Besler injured, but called in.

»Klinsmann calls five keepers and I think it’s a good decision. He’s going to rotate them into camp so that he respects the impact the keepers–all MLS based–have on their team’s success.

Comparing The Incomparable: On Sir Alex Ferguson & MLS Ranks

Time to hit the road...

Time to hit the road…

Will Parchman takes a look at which MLS coaches got Ferg in them.

Alex Ferguson retired. Newsflash, Rick Reilly-style!.

Another bit for the ticker: Word is he was a good manager.

Sickly good.

There are the 38 trophies in 26 years at Manchester United–as crickets chirp at the Emirates–and his record both in Europe and in domestic competitions stands head and shoulders above any club manager in European history. But why?

It seems paradoxical at first that a single aging man should have such an otherworldly impact on a game that does not directly involve him, doesn’t it? Draw up all the tactical blueprints you like, but in the end the man on the touchline has nothing to do with their physical implementation. Sir Alex hasn’t scored a goal in a competitive game in 39 years. It’s clear that certain coaches are better than others, but logically, why is Fergie is far an outlier from the standard deviation?

And yet there is obviously something special about Ferguson and the small guild of elite coaches he heads. Four key traits came to define Ferguson’s coaching career, which MLS coaches best emblematize them?

Disclaimer: There are multiple right answers here. These are merely mine.

Without further ado, the four idiosyncrasies that undergirded Fergie’s unbelievable coaching career, which is burning toward its glorious conclusion.

Eccentric disciplinarian

The best coaches are odd birds. They stamp into losing press conferences and push fire out of their nostrils. I’ve interviewed them. They are not pleasant. At other times they clop into winning press conferences and walk that minuscule tightrope swinging over the pit of restlessness that swallows up their free thoughts. I’ve been in the room for those interviews, too. The coach’s temporary satisfaction is quickly subsumed by distraction. The chalk is already flying into furious motion even as his striker bundles in a goal for a 4-0 lead with 20 minutes left. The next game is already a topic of discussion.

What I’m saying is the best coaches are not like you and I. We don’t really understand them. They say odd things to the press, spewing forth an indignant, righteous anger based on vague, often entirely invented slights. I’m not sure anyone was a better, more successful eccentric than Sir Alex. He was unlike a horde of others in the disciplinarian mold in this respect because he was always approachable. Meet him out of his black sideline peacoat when the gum wasn’t squished between his molars and the visage is distinctly pedestrian slightly more reverent perhaps.

But he’s not. He lambasted players who weren’t in shape. Early in his career, he developed the nickname “Furious Fergie.” He kicked over tea urns when his teams were losing. He manipulated the press for his own gains. He once swung through on a cleat that hit David Beckham just above the eyebrow in the Manchester United locker room. He petulantly recalled loans, criticized match officials and still holds a grudge against Gordon Strachan two decades after he snubbed Aberdeen for Cologne. Again, this is not a normal man. In some respects, he’s not a well-adjusted man either. Perhaps retirement and guarding his lawn suits him.

"I swear to g*d I'll headbutt you..."

“I swear to g*d I’ll headbutt you…”

But for our purposes here, this is a good thing. These eccentricities federated him with his players. The ones who didn’t acquiesce were either eventually folded into the system or jettisoned. An endless rotation of willing bodies was then put in their place (many of whom came from the scouting network he so meticulously pruned). Alex Ferguson is many things, but he is a man endlessly sure of what he wanted, what works and how to meet those ends.

MLS’ closest facsimile? Jason Kreis.

The RSL head man is perhaps a bit less lyrical than Fergie, but his iron jaw, excellent eye for talent and unwavering resolve make him MLS’s most accomplished eccentric disciplinarian. His terse press conferences and inability to appear satisfied are hallmarks. I pity the fool who dogs it on Kreis’s watch.

Continuity and Simplicity

Jose Mourinho has often been hailed as the best manager in the world over the past decade. By at least some metrics, those folks may well be correct.

But how settled can you be as a player when your manager has an eye on the door before he arrives? Mourinho and those like him are compelled by the challenge of the thing. When the challenge pales, the chariot awaits. This has kneecapped more than one club. Inter Milan are still figuring out a way forward.

The effect is more than just psychological.

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Manchester United: Sir Alex Ferguson Hangs ‘Em Up

It's been real...

It’s been real…

Raise your hand if you had Ryan Giggs retiring before Sir Alex Ferguson?

The iconic Red Devil manager confirms that he is retiring at the end of this Premiership campaign. That darn Nani red card.

Manchester United announces that they will name his successor within the next 48 hours. Davie Moyes in pole position.

 

Analytics: Want To Win? Here’s How

Thanks to a discussion on Twitter this morning amongst Steve Fenn, Lee Mooney and myself, I was sent this interactive visual below. The visual is the handiwork of Mooney.

As always, click on the link for the interactive version.

.. Click link below for interactive version ...

.. Click link below for interactive version …

Click here for interactive version

While not a whole lot of direct or even indirect conclusions can be made in isolation here, the date–to me on a cursory review–speaks to the importance of crosses, goalie play & where you play your defensive line.

Interesting stuff and I’ll try to get more information on the source data here.

Stu Holden: Back in USMNT Camp–From Radar To Roster

Holden rocks the mesh against Haiti, Summer 2009

Holden rocks the mesh against Haiti, Summer 2009

Late last night in a release on US Soccer, Jurgen Klinsmann threw (fixed!) gasoline on Stu Holden’s slow nearly three year burn to rejoin the USMNT senior squad in a meaningful capacity.

After Bolton handled him this year–appropriately–with kid gloves and Holden excelled in a short stint at Sheffield United, Klinsmann stated that Holden will be back in full effect this summer.

The former Dynamo player will be called in for the May-June USMNT WCQ camp as well as for the Gold Cup with no limits put on his participation.

What’s more, Klinsmann stated that Holden was being called in for his resolve and intangibles. Back in 2009, after Holden was a leader on the 2009 Gold Cup squad, TSG christened him a future captain. Holden’s a unique player; the type of guy on a bench that brings the skills, but also raises the lockeroom.

MLS Club Data Review: Progressions & Regressions

Ferreira: No regresión

Ferreira: No regresión

Steve Fenn with a continuing series looking into & behind the data as the MLS season progresses or regresses for some. (Twitter) (Blog)

In any sport it is difficult to tell which teams are truly better than others, in a prescribed span, especially two months into a season. It may make for great fan fodder—chest-beating and trolling—but that same fan who puffed himself out might be scurrying away a few months later when his team has taken an injury to a short Colombian play maker with brittle ankles. Nevermind.

Guaging soccer can be more difficult in soccer, where scoring occurrences are few and a random whistle or bounce can easily be a two-point, seemingly unearned, difference to a match’s outcome. Thank you MLS for your schedule randomization too: When the Seattle Sounders have only played 6 matches while the New York Red Bulls are already through 10, it gets more challenging in MLS.

Building off of last month’s attempt to quantify early season accomplishments it shows the writer was spot-on: The biggest MLS outliers in March results have already started to regress, but in tandem a few clubs are separating themselves– good or bad–from the high-parity center of the league.

March ended with data showing a few clubs whose offenses and/or defenses were operating at a highly-unsustainable level. This month instead of comparing 2013 results to historical ones, we look at March to April.

...

… Club crests sized by games played….

(Click here for interactive version where you can bring in previous season, sort by club, etc.)

Like Tebowmania, Chivas’ offensive madness has come crashing down under the weight of a larger sample size. Chelis chest-beating so to speak should be in regression.

The shots on goal in Goatland have stayed consistent, but their goals are down from 2.0 per game to 1.5 for the season to date. Still higher than expected, but back to Earth. Likewise, Houston has fallen off and Chicago has improved by half a goal per game.

Interestingly, shots on target have been even more volatile month-to-month than goals. The averages of Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, and Columbus have all fallen by at least a shot on goal, while those of Philadelphia and Sporting Kansas City have improved by the same degree.

San Jose came close, getting on frame 3.89 times per game so far, versus 3.0 through the first month.

Defensively, the Fire bounced back across goals and shots on target after their horrid opening month. Portland reduced their goals significantly though Donovan Ricketts was challenged just as often. Meanwhile, the DC United defense looks as broken down as Kobe Bryant up against Russell Westbrook post-Achilles, with their goals allowed climbing from 1.0 to 1.6, despite their shots on frame per match dropping by 1½.

...

Click here for interactive version sortable by conference and with a quantitative power ranking.

Using the same methology from last month, borrowed & adapted from Infostrada’s Simon Gleave, illustrates the overall parity of MLS. (See that last month’s article for full explanation.)

For results through April, a slight adjustment was made to xGDPG to correct for the skew given extreme 2012 performers. Rather than make schedule appear easier or harder simply because clubs don’t play themselves, their full 2013 xGDPG was subtracted from the cumulative xGDPG through April.

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Greed Is Good: Why MLS Must Feed The Monster

How much is your team worth?

"How much are you gonna spend on a ticket son?" "Not enough"

“How much are you gonna spend on a ticket son?” “Not enough” (Photo courtesy: MLSReserves.com)

Alex Olshansky with Part I of II on assessing franchise value in MLS

(Twitter) (Blog)

Real Salt Lake owner Dell Loy Hansen recently stated in a Salt Lake Tribune profile of him: “One thing that’s black and white: I will never make money running this.”

Mr. Hansen is right.

And he is also very wrong.

He is right in the sense that vast majority of MLS teams run on a net operating loss. Based on that comment, RSL is likely among that group. But here’s where Mr. Hansen is wrong: hardly anyone in world soccer makes their money on operations. It is not a cash-flowing business. It is an asset-appreciation business.

Below is the most recent financial table of EPL clubs compiled by The Guardian. QPR and Swansea were excluded as some information was missing for them. Also, The Guardian’s formula was slightly altered to make the numbers more uniform.

...

… Click to enlarge …

As is the case in MLS, most teams are not making money on an operating basis.

Champions Manchester City lost nearly 100 million pounds (~$150 million), on revenues of 230 million.

And yet, according to Forbes, they are currently worth approximately $690 million.

If MLS aspires to be one of the top leagues in the world, as Don Garber has stated, then the league has a long way to go to resemble the EPL, the current gold standard of global soccer. Manchester United—by itself—is worth approximately three times the entirety of MLS.

So how does MLS stack up? With information so opaque, estimating a team’s finances and overall value is—at best— educated guesswork. To date, the most comprehensive attempt to value each MLS team was done by Forbes back in 2008.

... Click to enlarge ...

… Click to enlarge …

 —

For whatever reason, Forbes has not put out anything since.

The league has changed dramatically since then. For example, this piece of info from the 2008 article on “struggling teams.”

..believe SportingKC has done just that.

..believe SportingKC has done just that.

“The Kansas City Wizards are playing in a minor league baseball stadium and had just $5 million in revenue.”

One factor that makes valuing MLS teams so challenging is inextricable business relationship between the teams and MLS/SUM.

Among the peculiarities of this relationship is that the league—not the team—owns each player’s contract.

Additionally, SUM negotiates the sale of World Cup broadcasting rights in the United States, organizes international friendlies, etc. and profits from these ventures may or may not be distributed to owners of MLS teams. Therefore, to simplify matters, this valuation only takes into account revenue earned by each team. It also allocates any revenue from league-wide sponsorship deals (Adidas) equally amongst everyone.

Match day revenues were calculated based on average ticket prices from tiqiq.com and a blend of average attendance from 2012 and the first games of 2013. This value was “grossed-up” to account for non-ticket match day revenue. This calculation is based on guidance from a 2009 document (login required) prepared when the Portland Timbers were pushing for public funding for a stadium. The gross-up factor is lower for teams without their own soccer-specific stadia.

Television, with the exception of the LA Galaxy Time Warner deal, was allocated evenly across each team.

Team-specific sponsorship was generally limited to jersey and or stadium deals. Local and smaller deals could not be tabulated as those specifics are not publicly available.

For example, from the profile of RSL owner Dell Loy Hansen, he mentions that he expects RSL to generate approximately $10 million in sponsorship revenue.

But a contradiction?

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